Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
