Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
